Friday, January 31, 2014

Moose's Weekly Pick

The original Super Bowl Moose right there; Daryl Johnston.  Now that the harrowing Super Bowl bye week is over, let's get down to business.  We've got one of the most prolific offenses the NFL has ever seen versus one of the most athletic and intimidating defenses in recent memory.  What will happen when these two meet each other on the gridiron?  Irresistible force paradox type stuff.  This game has me perplexed, but let's take our customary deep dive and try to hash it out.  As always, there will be plenty of Simpsons references.

Denver (-2.5) versus Seattle: I am going to consider this a road game for both teams; as neither will have a clear crowd advantage, and obviously we are not in Denver or Seattle.  This hurts both teams since they were both #1 seeds in the playoffs, but hurts Seattle more than Denver.  Denver can get loud, but the aura of the 12th man in Seattle is a big boost for Seattle's high energy players (if you believe that kind of stuff).  Seattle feeds off of their crowd like Homer feeds off of the Evergreen Terrace crowd during a sidewalk sale.  ADVANTAGE: Denver





On offense it is clear the Denver has the advantage.  Peyton Manning set the record for touchdown passes in a season, and has a full arsenal of healthy weapons in Julius and Demaryus Thomas, Eric Decker, Knowshon Moreno, and Darth Helmet.  I know Seattle's defense is stingy, but that is a lot to ask of any defense to cover all those guys.  Moreover, Denver has performed very well against the good defenses that it played this season (Kansas City).  Seattle's offense has been hit or miss this season.  They put up big numbers earlier this year, but struggled against San Francisco and New Orleans in the playoffs.  If they can't run the ball against Denver, they will be in trouble.  Simply put, when they are healthy Denver has more firepower on offense than the Springfield Nuclear Plant softball team (side note: this is easily my greatest work of MS paint art yet). ADVANTAGE: Denver



On the defensive side of the ball, it is Seattle that has the clear advantage.  They have been the best defense in the NFL all year, have the best cover corners in the league, and can get pressure on the QB only rushing four linemen.  However, I am looking at a road game against Indianapolis as a barometer for Seattle.  Against nerdy voiced Luck on the road, the Seahawks defense got blown out to the tune of 30+ points.  Now dial that offense up a notch to Denver level.  Could be trouble.  Moreover, Denver's defense has really stepped up lately despite a rash of injuries.  Just playing devil's advocate on that side of the ball; Seattle clearly is the better defense.  ADVANTAGE: Seattle

I'll be honest and say I don't know much about either special teams unit.  Matt Prater is the Broncos kicker and I'll be damned if he doesn't hit every field goal, and kick the ball out of the end zone every time.  Both teams have turnover prone, yet dangerous return units.  I will give the slight advantage to Denver here.  ADVANTAGE: Denver

On paper it looks like Denver has an edge over the Seahawks, and the rationalist in me is predicting Denver to win.  I will say that a few things could favor Seattle though. One: John Fox is a Super Bowl loser.  As history and TPLIYP show, Super Bowl losing coaches have a tough time ever winning the big one again.  That being said, we know how few black QBs have won the Super Bowl as well.  I am just assuming Russell Wilson is black at this point.  I feel like it is a well guarded mystery.  Two: I love Seattle's attitude.  They build on big plays.  If they get on a roll early that could snowball into big things for them.  For all we know, their defense could totally shut Denver down.  Three: Though the Broncos defense has tightened up, they haven't had to face a mobile QB in a while.  That will be interesting to see. 

Taking everything into account, Moose is going to take the Broncos (-2.5) to win Super Bowl 48.  Make it my NO DOUBTER of the week.  Though I think the Broncos will win, you can bet your ass I will be rooting for the Seahawks.  12TH MAN!!!!!!  Wherever you are this weekend, grab some wings, dip some chips and enjoy the game.  This concludes another season of MWP.


LAST WEEK: 0-2
OVERALL: 118-124-6
NO DOUBTER: 11-7

Friday, January 17, 2014

Moose's Weekly Picks

Here we are all of a sudden; championship weekend.  It has been an interesting year, but pretty much the teams we thought would be right there on championship weekend have made it through.  Another classic Brady vs. Manning duel out in Denver, and the NFC Super Bowl representative coming out of the bad to the bone NFC West.  Last week, a late Seahawks defensive lapse assured that Moose would not get back to .500 on the season, but the No Doubter keeps rolling along.  Let's break down this week's matchups and see what we think.

New England (+5.5) at Denver: I have no idea what to make of this game.  Part of me thinks the Pats figure out a way to win, part of me thinks that Denver wins in a cakewalk.  We've seen that a key to beating Denver is a solid running game to control the time of possession.  No coincidence that the Pats run game has been putting on a show the past few games led by Legarrette Blount.  I would rate both defenses as equal given the number of injuries on both, but passing offense could be the determining factor for the Broncos to win.  Julius Thomas did not play in the last game between these two teams, and Rob Gronkowski did for the Pats.  +1 Denver, -1 New England.  The NEP might not have enough strong coverage guys to stop all of Peyton's weapons.  However, the emergence of Jamie Collins last week was a huge plus for the Pats defense.  As you can see it is very close on paper.  I think this Patriots team has a little bit of the 2001 NEP in them though, so I'm gonna take the dogs on the road.  PICK: NEP

San Francisco (+3.5) at Seattle: These teams have played each other twice this season, each winning on their home turf.  Seattle is obviously known for the 12th man, and have gone 16-1 at home in the last two seasons.  However, I think that the 12th man is more hyped than the arrival of Poochie on the Itchy and Scratchy show.  The 49ers showed me a lot in that beat down they put on the Panthers in Carolina last week.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks (especially offensively) looked rather pedestrian in a win against the Saints at home.  The 49ers are peaking at the right time, and I think they go into Seattle and shock the Seahawks for a return to the Super Bowl.  PICK: San Francisco (No Doubter)
 

Let us celebrate the arrival of the long weekend with the adding of buffalo to wings.  Enjoy the games you mutton heads.

LAST WEEK: 2-1-1
OVERALL: 118-122-6
NO DOUBTER: 11-6

Friday, January 10, 2014

Moose's Weekly Picks


These are the times that try men's souls.  The playoffs.  Last week we were a little pre-occupied with the Iggs game to get a proper post up.  It would have been a solid week if Fat Andy and the Chiefs hadn't epically collapsed in the second half.  This week features several interesting games, as well as a few rematches of regular season match ups.  Let's take a deep dive.

New Orleans (+8) at Seattle: New Orleans exorcised their road demons last week in a last second victory against the Iggs that ripped my heart out.  Drew Brees played lousy against an average defense though.  I think they get spanked against a real defense and Russell Wilson at home.  PICK: Seattle

Indianapolis (+7) at New England: Really tough to figure out which Colts team will show up.  Both showed up in different halves last week.  The Pats are undefeated at home, but seven points is a lot to give up to a seemingly solid Colts team.  One thing is clear though, the Colts trading a first rounder for Trent Richardson was a worse deal than when Homer traded his danish to Bart for a delicious doorstop.  PICK: Indy


San Francisco (-1) at Carolina: Carolina beat San Francisco at Candlestick earlier this year, but the playoffs are different.  I think San Fran shows Cam Newton what they are all about this week, and I think Jim Harbaugh will out coach Ron Rivera.  San Francisco is also finally completely healthy, while Carolina is a bit dinged up. PICK: San Francisco

San Diego (+9.5) at Denver: According to the Eagles home opener theory, the Chargers are going to win the Super Bowl this year.  They have also beaten Denver in Denver this season, and Big Phil Rivers is looking mighty good.  9.5 is a lot to give away knowing all those facts.  PICK: San Diego  NO DOUBTER

LAST WEEK: 2-2
OVERALL: 116-121-6
NO DOUBTER: 10-6

Saturday, January 4, 2014

Moose's Weekly Picks

Live from the couch:

Kansas City (-1.5) NO DOUBTER
New Orleans (+3)
Cincy (-7)
San Francisco (-2.5)

Full update next week